(Dec. 30th is an outside bar with a lower price close)
1/ Swing analysis, 3-bar daily:
- trend
starting from end Oct. 23424, it is showing a down trend with "lower-top-lower-bottom"
condition that market can rebound but not exceed a previous top until a reversal takes
place.
- Price
swing sizes are 1465 and 1792 for down swings; 844 & 1207 for up swings. If 22217 is
confirmed as a swing top, I will expect a swing bottom from 20425 to 20752, roughly
higher than a swing bottom with price low 20368.
- Time
duration of down swings are both 21 trading days and 7-8 t.d. for up swings. I would
expect near or at Jan. 25th for a potential swing bottom
2/ Fibonacci
this turn seems to end with a top at 22217, which is 0.50 between 23424 & 21010 and
close to 0.666 between 22803 & 21010
3/ Geometry
- trendline, day high
although Dec. 24, 28 and 30th have moved above the line, only Dec. 24th can close
above it and then fall back
- trendline, closing price
on the third chart, only Dec. 24th has closed above the line for one day
(simply a false break)
- 1x1
it is broken the one plotted from 21010, and the line is well re-tested on Dec. 30th.
4/ Indicators
hourly MACD has shown a weakening tendency since Dec. 24th and a potential
reversal may have occurred.
5/ percentage stop
for sharp rebounds, I would use 1% trailing stop as to monitor potential turning points
