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2015年12月30日 星期三

hsi review 20151230

(Dec. 30th is an outside bar with a lower price close)

1/ Swing analysis, 3-bar daily:
  - trend
     starting from end Oct. 23424, it is showing a down trend with "lower-top-lower-bottom"
     condition that market can rebound but not exceed a previous top until a reversal takes
     place.
  - Price
      swing sizes are 1465 and 1792 for down swings; 844 & 1207 for up swings. If 22217 is
      confirmed as a swing top, I will expect a swing bottom from 20425 to 20752, roughly
     higher than a swing bottom with price low 20368.
  - Time
      duration of down swings are both 21 trading days and 7-8 t.d. for up swings. I would
     expect near or at Jan. 25th for a potential swing bottom


 2/ Fibonacci
      this turn seems to end with a top at 22217, which is 0.50 between 23424 & 21010 and
     close to 0.666 between 22803 & 21010


3/ Geometry
   - trendline, day high
     although Dec. 24, 28 and 30th have moved above the line, only Dec. 24th can close
     above it and then fall back
   - trendline, closing price
     on the third chart, only Dec. 24th has closed above the line for one day
     (simply a false break)
   - 1x1
     it is broken the one plotted from 21010, and the line is well re-tested on Dec. 30th.

4/ Indicators
     hourly MACD has shown a weakening tendency since Dec. 24th and a potential
     reversal may have occurred.

5/ percentage stop
     for sharp rebounds, I would use 1% trailing stop as to monitor potential turning points

2015年10月11日 星期日

883 monthly & weely review


883.hk/CNOOC was one of the stocks+indexes that I traded since 2007, the time I jumped into the market without adequate knowledge, and is still trading & monitoring. One of the reasons I am still trading it is that I earned for some times of sweat sums of money by trading its derivatives in 2008, and fewer occurrence than other stocks in having a loss upto this moment.

Obviously, this is undergoing a downward channel for years, and I was lucky enough in catching some tops & bottoms. And now, a critical moment has come - a potential bottom reaching the channel lower boundary, plus testing a nice retracement level, .786.

Its main trend is going down (downward channel) since there are lower-top-lower-bottomg according to its 3-bar monthly chart, many of the swing bottoms have already been broken. Although it is TOO far, there is a possible support at 3.83... (6 dollars lower from 9.27 or -64.7%...) obviously not a useful reference... 0.886 could be a higher support but still not much of practical use ...


By measuring each up & down moves, there are some noticeable tendency since 2011: 

For down move, weeks taken are either 15-17 or 25-26; size is from 5.02-6.16 (10.20 excluded for a channel scenario)

For up move, weeks taken are either 19-22 (12 & 30 excluded); size is from 4.06-4.46 (7.08 excluded)

If the end of Oct. 2nd 2015 is a low and we try to project the coming up move from this point, I would expect a swing size of about 4 (I put 4.46 on the 2nd chart) and last for about 20 weeks. the projected price target is close to .618-.667 level between 13.70-7.41 which add to the meaningfulness of this projection.

Before that happen, a minor swing top at about 10.16 could be an important resistance, in order to identify change in a minor trend.


If the rebound is failed, it could land around 5.82-6.0 (.886 retracement level and a swing bottom) or even lower.

2015年10月3日 星期六

dji short and long term views

Yesterday night before going to sleep, US market seemed to finish an ABC correction with its B wave 0.66 of C wave:

thereafter, a nice break-out followed

Macroscopically, US market looks like undergoing a series of similar expansion throughout last 2 decades:



monthly closing prices are pretty close to .618 (note this is a backward induction where its reciprocal is 1.618 a universal expansion rate). In general, it could be an expanding triangle or wedge that doom-day analysts may think there will be an End-of-the-world scenario (not End-of-Day... everything with a beginning has an end...) with a total market collapse to just a few thousand points (dji: 5847 if the same proportion is applied) ... Before that happens, looking at the fibo levels between 6470 && 18351 is more realistic at the moment, e.g. .382, .50, .618...


Looking at its 3-bar weekly swing charts, there are two swing bottoms (17038,15855) broken since the fall from end May 2015, but stopped above 15341. Therefore, a change in trend is confirmed.

Similar to hsi 's current situation, before the termination comes, I would expect a retracement to the north. 16933 is far too low to be the final point of this counter-wave.


From its 2-bar weekly swing chart, one of the possible targets could be 17466 which was a swing bottom in week of July 11th 2015.


From a geometric point of view, US market has also broken a weekly support trend line extrapolated from March 2009 and October 2011. Interestingly, when we apply a parallel trend line starting from the top in early Jan 2014, the market follows without violation.

If templates of Gartley pattern are applied, we could find some proportional relationships as shown in below charts:


If 15370 fits to .382, the market should follow with a retracement to the north and then try to find support at 14378 (0.50), 13440 (0.618) or 12280 (0.764) or even 1.000.

10404 is quite interesting since it is 102x102, a "square" number.


If 15370 fits to .50, the market should follow with a retracement to the north and then try to find support at 14718 (0.618) or 13859 (0.764) or even 1.000.

2015年9月24日 星期四

Review of current situation - hsi 20150924

The amplitude of rebound upto this moment is very disappointing.

If Level of 224 was not broken, it could develop into a continuation pattern (range 205-224) resulting in a resume of down move; if 224 is broken, still could have a chance to surge to a higher level before the termination down move...

A. Trend classification:
weekly 3-bar

after previous swing bottoms 225 (Dec 2014), 211 (Mar 2014) have been broken, the uptrend started from 2011 is reversed. From the perspective of swing trading method, there is usually a retracement to a higher level to form a lower swing top before it resumes to fall which serves as a confirmation of downtrend.

A signal bottom is observed in the week of Sep. 12th 2015 for a down swing lasted for 19 weeks which provides a marker of a possible counter-trend movement. Only aggressive traders with sound money management are capable to take advantage of this counter move since the move is vigorous and rather short-term. Upto this moment, the market is still trading within the weekly range of this signal bar, we should pay attention to its break-out and follow with good money management.

Trade with the main trend is important for a swing trader.

There is a possible symmetry in time that from week Dec 12th 2014 to week May 2nd 2015 is also 19 weeks compare to that from May 2nd 2015 to Sep 12th. 2015. Besides, mid point of May 2nd to Sep 12th is roughly the week of Jul. 11th 2015 which provides a proportion relationship within this down move.

The slope from high of May 2nd to low of Jul. 11th (thick blue line) is less steep than the one from high of Jul. 25th to low of Sep. 12th. (thick red line)

weekly 2-bar

considering the move from May to Sep 2015, those support levels are similar to the 3-week swing chart. no intermediate swings top/bottom is formed during the period. No hints for any possible turning point is presented.

daily 3-bar

the current trend is a downtrend given a lower-top-lower-bottom scenario. Another signal bottom can also be located in this time-frame on Sep. 8th 2015 (same week in Sep. 12th) which is an outside bar followed by a gap up. This downtrend can only be reversed when it crosses 256 (too high for the moment) or a 3-bar swing top formed in coming future.

From April 27th 2015 to Sep. 8th 2015, it took 92 trading days and the outside/signal bottom was formed. We should pay special attention to this signal bottom after this prolonged down move for a  possible change in trend.

daily 2-bar

when we switch to a 2-bar daily swing chart, we can observe that there is a pair of intermediate swings top & bottom formed after Aug. 25th 2015 and the market is, in fact, trapped in a range between 205 & 224. We should wait for a break-out to signal either a reversal or a continuation of a downtrend.

A recent swing top at 22424 is near an old swing bottom 22530 in Dec. 2014. as a resistance. 

B. Strategy: (updated on Sep. 25th 2015)
scenario b1. reversal - counter a downtrend
                    there must be some markers/indicators for an entry: MACD cross,
                    trendline broken, cross of 225 etc. some analysts think there is a
                    head-and-shoulders bottom in formation,target 50% of 285-205  re-test
                    is 245 (matches with a of weekly trendline 2009March & 2012 June
                    bottoms), more aggressive 255-267 in a zig zag ABC counter swing/wave
                 
scenario b2. continuation pattern scenario
                    daily 2-bar swing chart - intermediate consolidation would be over after
                    205 level was crossed, sets cut loss at entry point 2% above the previous
                    high and trailing stop

scenario b3. side-way for months
                    can just wait la...
                 
C. Other markers:
  1/ MACD - (weekly) no bullish cross, no divergence; (daily) may be a bearish cross
                    coming

  2/ RSI - (weekly) near 30 level but no obvious divergence; (daily) a divergence
                between the double bottom (Aug. 25th & Sep. 8th 2015)

  3/ Volume - (monthly & weekly) the volume is shrinking from May to Sep. 2015,
                      volume of bottom in Sep. 12th 2015 is lower than that of Jul. 11th
                      2015, a possible divergence

  4/ Geometry - (weekly chart) market has broken a long-term support trend line back
                       into 2008-09. It has been respected for many years, and we should be
                       aware of a possible re-test of the same trend line. However, since the
                       uptrend has been reversed, I would expect a different (set of) down
                       trend line would establish & be respected. In fact, expansion and
                       contraction speeds are different.