883 wk 20190122

a top and a fibo retracement level form a consolidation & provided a support

883 td 20181022 - seem bullish

883 td 20160405 (break-away gap)

a ref. of break-away gap from an online source (http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/thegapprimer.html) :

What's happening here:

- a break-away gap after a break-thru of consolidation area (contracting triangle/wedge, whatever)

- last time the stock showed the same combo of break-thru+break away gap was in Aug-Sep. 2014. This marked a beginning of the downtrend, see if it will do the same this time

883 td 20160401

a break-thru... finally

883 - possible long term bottom coming

After 883 has failed to climb higher, I hold a different view of it from hsi and my bearish target is about 5.3-5.5 in 2016 Q1/Q2

A change to short-term bullish view

next week if hsi weekly bar is a down bar, I would change to become bearish since Oct 26th could be a significant turning date. When time squares price (td closing price below 0.333 and time 0.333 between top&bot), many people would think it is valid now.

I would set myself a stop order at 220 for hsi since a re-test is more likely; similarly, 883 will find its ground to land instead of 11.66... Certainly, if that happens, this could be an once-in-a-life opportunity to buy like a big sale.

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/11/hsi-20151112.html
http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/11/883-td-20151104.html

The down move from Oct. 26th would end around early Jan. reaching a level as low as 205-208, which would follow with a rebound for just a few weeks into March 2016 and then a termination fall. Some people think 15k in Q2 or Q3 of 2016 but who can actually know...

DJI has reached .886 or 18000 level and react/fall decisively, this retracement has ended...
http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/11/dji-short-and-long-term-views-follow-up.html

883 td 20151104

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/10/883-td-20151014.html

.333 - .382 level is not supportive this time, it eventually reached a level near .500 twice (short term double bot) on daily chart and follows with today's break-away & wide range bar. I would expect an extension (>1.00) of this CD move, target 11.66

883 td 20151014

low of today is 8.90 which is almost the .333 level of retracement between 9.60 & 7.41. If it is valid, it may reach a 100%-161.8% extension of the range of 9.60 & 7.41, that is 11.07/11.67/12.42. Personally, I think 11.67 is more likely than the others (see also http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/10/883-monthly-weely-review.html).

883 monthly & weely review

883.hk/CNOOC was one of the stocks+indexes that I traded since 2007, the time I jumped into the market without adequate knowledge, and is still trading & monitoring. One of the reasons I am still trading it is that I earned for some times of sweat sums of money by trading its derivatives in 2008, and fewer occurrence than other stocks in having a loss upto this moment.

Obviously, this is undergoing a downward channel for years, and I was lucky enough in catching some tops & bottoms. And now, a critical moment has come - a potential bottom reaching the channel lower boundary, plus testing a nice retracement level, .786.

Its main trend is going down (downward channel) since there are lower-top-lower-bottomg according to its 3-bar monthly chart, many of the swing bottoms have already been broken. Although it is TOO far, there is a possible support at 3.83... (6 dollars lower from 9.27 or -64.7%...) obviously not a useful reference... 0.886 could be a higher support but still not much of practical use ...

By measuring each up & down moves, there are some noticeable tendency since 2011: 

For down move, weeks taken are either 15-17 or 25-26; size is from 5.02-6.16 (10.20 excluded for a channel scenario)

For up move, weeks taken are either 19-22 (12 & 30 excluded); size is from 4.06-4.46 (7.08 excluded)

If the end of Oct. 2nd 2015 is a low and we try to project the coming up move from this point, I would expect a swing size of about 4 (I put 4.46 on the 2nd chart) and last for about 20 weeks. the projected price target is close to .618-.667 level between 13.70-7.41 which add to the meaningfulness of this projection.

Before that happen, a minor swing top at about 10.16 could be an important resistance, in order to identify change in a minor trend.

If the rebound is failed, it could land around 5.82-6.0 (.886 retracement level and a swing bottom) or even lower.

883 td 20150625

hopefully, it is developing into side-way condition ...

in extreme case, (main trend down in red box) there may be a moderate correction before the last leg has gone down...provided 10-20% is ''moderate'' enough here...









http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/05/883-td-20150520.html

883 td 20150520

expect for just a retracement? or to find a hellboy in the deep valley?

883 bottom projection 20141210

 since the channel/bottom trendline is broken, I think there are more room to go south with 2 of the possible projection of target bottom price as shown on pic.
Price below 10 will be VERY attractive if we look back 1-2 years later

883 20141121

weekly view, it broke 11.40 but stopped above 11.20, an important price low on Oct. 4th 2011 (didn't use 11.10 on Sep 26, 2011 since 11.20 is a retest of bottom/leg)

temporarily, it broke a recent downtrend and a 2-day bottom at 11.82 on Oct. 30, 2014, followed up with a large volume indicating this could be a valid break-out. Lastly, in my point of view, it is just a rebounce before touching the weekly lower trendline.

883 monthly 20141107

expect a little room to go south and touch the lower downtrend, could be possible to break previous bottom 11.42 ... 11.20 is the extreme...

883 & 939 wk 20140911

 reaction to .886 & downtrend line

(level of top adjusted)

reaction to downtrend line

883 higher volume at bottom and top

relatively higher volume at bottom and top... inspiring

883, 939 20140625

 a recent high reached 0.618, good gain-loss ratio for entry, target 13.1->12.5
Remarks: range for fibo. needs not to be the previous whole swing, more important is different level of fibo. are respected by its internal structure, e.g. top or bottom rest on fibo ratio., it respected once, it will respect one more; twice, two more, etc.






________________________________________________________________________

 939 nearly touches the downtrend of weekly closing prices, its internal structure quite respects fibo.
very bearish should see a double bottom around 4.7-4.9, at the moment just for around 5.25-5.27


a closer look of fibo being respected.
(I hid the green diagonal on purpose...)

883 td 20140619

today, we could be seeing a top (today's high now is 14.26)
I wrongly guess it will reach bottom before reaching this high level... anyway
(upper trend line amened)

883 20140606

expecting a  short-term pull-back ... either of the time

 longer term, expecting a quick surge after the above mentioned pull-back, weekly should close around, or perfectly below, an important weekly bot overlapping a fibo@.764

a clearer pic. showing the trendline forming a resistance for weekly closing prices... of course, sometimes it jumped higher than the line for a short while...

883 coming bot & top 20140530

close monitor when mid of coming 2 months: 16 June & 16 July 2014