當人口老化遇上拒當樓奴潮

人口老化, 手上有資產會賣出以過日, 樓宇供應增加, equlibrium price 下跌;

年青一代拒當樓奴, 樓宇需求下降, Qp 下跌.

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E9%9D%92%E5%B9%B4%E6%8B%92%E7%95%B6%E6%A8%93%E5%A5%B4-%E5%83%8527-%E6%93%AC%E7%BD%AE%E6%A5%AD-225519867.html


香港政府土地供應由近二十年嘅低位拉扯向上, 樓宇供應增加, Qp 下跌...

http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201611/16/P2016111600443.htm

黎緊30年, 投資私人住宅市場, 係長升長有, 定長跌長有, 定係橫行呢?

Can the same cycle of real estate in US be applied to HK?

(extracted from the book "Technical Analysis for Trading Professional 2nd Edition" by Constance Brown)

It is my 3rd time reading this book since 2009, every time I found there is something I missed and rediscovered and this time from its 2nd edition.

From what Mr. Edward Dewey discovered from US real estate data in the past, a cycle of 18 1/3 years was found.


















Can we apply the same cycle to HK real estate? The answer is yes if we consider 1997 and a recent top in 2015. A further verification seems hard due to the lack of real estate data in the old days...

More interestingly, the contraction/down time is about 1/3 or 0.333 of the cycle (74 months from June 1997 to Aug. 2003); expansion is about 2/3 or 0.666.

When will the coming bottom end? IF the cycle holds and we simply add 18.333 years or 220 months to the bottom in Aug. 2003, it would be Dec. 2021...

淘大, 麗城 歷史建築呎價

(source: www.28hse.com)

CCL 20160219 - slope of retracements

Assuming that the trend is up since year 2003, when the slope of retracements is getting flatter & flatter, the trend could be reversed until there is a retracement with relative stiff(-est) slope.

For easier comparison, coloured bars represent different slopes from different time. It is obvious that the latest retracement (in red) is the stiffest among the 4 retracements.

plan for the worst, hope for the best

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E6%B2%99%E7%94%B0%E8%A1%97%E5%9D%8A-%E7%99%B2%E5%83%B9%E9%9B%A3%E9%81%8F-213904656.html

crazy people matching with crazy market, that's why history repeats itself but in its own way and dimension.

the index on the right dropped 66% from the top, it would make many people outrageous if it happens somewhere else...