Can the same cycle of real estate in US be applied to HK?

(extracted from the book "Technical Analysis for Trading Professional 2nd Edition" by Constance Brown)

It is my 3rd time reading this book since 2009, every time I found there is something I missed and rediscovered and this time from its 2nd edition.

From what Mr. Edward Dewey discovered from US real estate data in the past, a cycle of 18 1/3 years was found.


















Can we apply the same cycle to HK real estate? The answer is yes if we consider 1997 and a recent top in 2015. A further verification seems hard due to the lack of real estate data in the old days...

More interestingly, the contraction/down time is about 1/3 or 0.333 of the cycle (74 months from June 1997 to Aug. 2003); expansion is about 2/3 or 0.666.

When will the coming bottom end? IF the cycle holds and we simply add 18.333 years or 220 months to the bottom in Aug. 2003, it would be Dec. 2021...