883 monthly & weely review

883.hk/CNOOC was one of the stocks+indexes that I traded since 2007, the time I jumped into the market without adequate knowledge, and is still trading & monitoring. One of the reasons I am still trading it is that I earned for some times of sweat sums of money by trading its derivatives in 2008, and fewer occurrence than other stocks in having a loss upto this moment.

Obviously, this is undergoing a downward channel for years, and I was lucky enough in catching some tops & bottoms. And now, a critical moment has come - a potential bottom reaching the channel lower boundary, plus testing a nice retracement level, .786.

Its main trend is going down (downward channel) since there are lower-top-lower-bottomg according to its 3-bar monthly chart, many of the swing bottoms have already been broken. Although it is TOO far, there is a possible support at 3.83... (6 dollars lower from 9.27 or -64.7%...) obviously not a useful reference... 0.886 could be a higher support but still not much of practical use ...

By measuring each up & down moves, there are some noticeable tendency since 2011: 

For down move, weeks taken are either 15-17 or 25-26; size is from 5.02-6.16 (10.20 excluded for a channel scenario)

For up move, weeks taken are either 19-22 (12 & 30 excluded); size is from 4.06-4.46 (7.08 excluded)

If the end of Oct. 2nd 2015 is a low and we try to project the coming up move from this point, I would expect a swing size of about 4 (I put 4.46 on the 2nd chart) and last for about 20 weeks. the projected price target is close to .618-.667 level between 13.70-7.41 which add to the meaningfulness of this projection.

Before that happen, a minor swing top at about 10.16 could be an important resistance, in order to identify change in a minor trend.

If the rebound is failed, it could land around 5.82-6.0 (.886 retracement level and a swing bottom) or even lower.