hsi review 20151230

(Dec. 30th is an outside bar with a lower price close)

1/ Swing analysis, 3-bar daily:
  - trend
     starting from end Oct. 23424, it is showing a down trend with "lower-top-lower-bottom"
     condition that market can rebound but not exceed a previous top until a reversal takes
     place.
  - Price
      swing sizes are 1465 and 1792 for down swings; 844 & 1207 for up swings. If 22217 is
      confirmed as a swing top, I will expect a swing bottom from 20425 to 20752, roughly
     higher than a swing bottom with price low 20368.
  - Time
      duration of down swings are both 21 trading days and 7-8 t.d. for up swings. I would
     expect near or at Jan. 25th for a potential swing bottom

 2/ Fibonacci
      this turn seems to end with a top at 22217, which is 0.50 between 23424 & 21010 and
     close to 0.666 between 22803 & 21010

3/ Geometry
   - trendline, day high
     although Dec. 24, 28 and 30th have moved above the line, only Dec. 24th can close
     above it and then fall back
   - trendline, closing price
     on the third chart, only Dec. 24th has closed above the line for one day
     (simply a false break)
   - 1x1
     it is broken the one plotted from 21010, and the line is well re-tested on Dec. 30th.

4/ Indicators
     hourly MACD has shown a weakening tendency since Dec. 24th and a potential
     reversal may have occurred.

5/ percentage stop
     for sharp rebounds, I would use 1% trailing stop as to monitor potential turning points