hsi td 20160125

In my opinion, the recent down move (22217-18534) is quite similar to the one in June-July 2015 (27470-22836).

1/ swing:
since no recent swing top is crossed, the trend is still down. However, the latest down swing is about 3600 pts. which has over-balanced the swing pattern starting from end Oct. 2015. I would expect a retracement to about 0.382-0.500 (203xx or 210xx) levels. These two levels are also the swing bottoms on Sep. 29, 2015 & Dec. 14, 2015 respectively which could provide a certain resistance to the market.

2/ fibo:
0.382 or 0.500 (203xx or 210xx) levels between 23423-18534

3/ geometry:
it would look nice if it could reach the blue line and form a lower swing top resulting in another down move