2015年7月18日 星期六

Supply and demand in real life and trading

In our daily lives, when a commodity like iPhone 6+ is getting hot, that means there is a growing popularity, more and more people are buying;


In contrast, when something is losing its popularity (e.g. cheese cake, crazy fries, Taiwanese pearl milk tea/bubble tea... ), fewer and fewer people are buying.

In trading world, we have similar situation that a trend is supported with higher ''popularity'' ie. volume but a trend is not valid when the volume is shrinking (as well as no direction in some consolidation pattern). This could explain the current situation we have in hsi:

my questions are: does this 'uptrend' starting from July. 8th supported with higher and higher/lower & lower 'popularity'? does it behave like the uptrend in March-April this year (left of below chart)?

before applying very sophisticated model/calculation of trading, taking a look in a layman's eye may be interesting.





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