A guess of coming pattern (rev. Jul. 20, 2015)

on Jul. 8th, market reached as low as 228 instead of 237-239 as I thought.

The rebound is about the same level as previous bottom 256. Thus, "an old bottom becomes a resistance". Furthermore, it also matches with the time window, Jul. 15-16.

Now the question is: will this move end with a retracement between 228 & 255? or a double bottom ~ 228? or a lower leg at 216?

If the pattern is valid, after a down move has formed, we should expect a vigorous surge to 50% or 61.8% of the previous wave (285-228), that is 256 or 263. Personally, I prefer the latter one just for a nicer (visually) symmetric pattern.

Time window of the down move could be early or mid Aug., end Sep. should be reserved for a big change/turn, like an end of correction wave.

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/07/hsi-possible-support-20150708.html