SSE td 20150731

the fact was...
and now the fact is...

endless retracement...

retracement, retracement, and retracement... what's more? yea, more!

island top

 In some cases, people can still able to find an escape door & settle their position within the range of an island top (23rd of DAX); but in highly volatile, it is rather urgent to cut the loss fast enough (23rd of Nikkei 225) without given a 2nd chance/thought to remedy one's position.

Although there is no such topping pattern in hsi, after it has broken 248-249 level, the trend become bearish again ... move from 228 to 256 could be regarded as one of the counter-moves against the main down trend.

Ross Beck 實在太牛/強了

Ross Beck... 牛到不得了!

Nikkei 225 wk 20150722

I think it can explain the situation better, a quick change is imminent...

Dax td 20150721

it seems Jul. 21-23rd to be a suitable time window for DAX...

Interesting point is:
A/B=B/C (off about 0.3%)

11802 is about the .618 retracement level of the previous wave...

專注

http://tmblr.co/ZXRpYqu6Tdat
http://www.forexjournal.com/interviews/599-an-interview-with-larry-pesavento

除左 trading world (see above links of the interview with Mr. Larry Pesavento), 其實好多學問/學術都係靠不斷浸淫和鑽研, 做到日思夜想, 先至出到成積. 即係由個人發展出靈感/insight/edge, 係其他人無或者極少數人.

唔夠專注, 就注定失敗.

<<貨幣戰爭>>作者宋鴻兵先生, 我覺得佢係位既讀懂歷史, 亦解通經濟在戰爭和國家博弈背後的原因. 德國二戰時打蘇俄(莫斯科, 油田), 日本打美國(珍珠港, 中途島)及東南亞, 以前我覺得奇怪...

A guess of coming pattern (rev. Jul. 20, 2015)

on Jul. 8th, market reached as low as 228 instead of 237-239 as I thought.

The rebound is about the same level as previous bottom 256. Thus, "an old bottom becomes a resistance". Furthermore, it also matches with the time window, Jul. 15-16.

Now the question is: will this move end with a retracement between 228 & 255? or a double bottom ~ 228? or a lower leg at 216?

If the pattern is valid, after a down move has formed, we should expect a vigorous surge to 50% or 61.8% of the previous wave (285-228), that is 256 or 263. Personally, I prefer the latter one just for a nicer (visually) symmetric pattern.

Time window of the down move could be early or mid Aug., end Sep. should be reserved for a big change/turn, like an end of correction wave.

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/07/hsi-possible-support-20150708.html

Supply and demand in real life and trading

In our daily lives, when a commodity like iPhone 6+ is getting hot, that means there is a growing popularity, more and more people are buying;

In contrast, when something is losing its popularity (e.g. cheese cake, crazy fries, Taiwanese pearl milk tea/bubble tea... ), fewer and fewer people are buying.

In trading world, we have similar situation that a trend is supported with higher ''popularity'' ie. volume but a trend is not valid when the volume is shrinking (as well as no direction in some consolidation pattern). This could explain the current situation we have in hsi:

my questions are: does this 'uptrend' starting from July. 8th supported with higher and higher/lower & lower 'popularity'? does it behave like the uptrend in March-April this year (left of below chart)?

before applying very sophisticated model/calculation of trading, taking a look in a layman's eye may be interesting.

US30 20150714

Below calculation requires some knowledge of wave theory and some high school math...

assume a ABC expanded flat is complete,

range of A=247;
range of B=357;
range of C=524 where
1.4453*A=B;
1.4678*B=C;
2.1215*A=C

take sq. root of 2.1215, we get 1.45654;
mean/average of 1.4453 & 1.4678 is 1.45655.

So, GM=AM but they rarely matches...

of course, most importantly, the rebound has reached 50% of the previous wave (not range)

Nikkei 225(Daily)20150714

trend line was once broken and now is very likely under re-test

time window - checked

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/06/hsce-td-2015060.html

I have expected a sharp fall before July 15-16th comes, and I now believe 15-16th could be a minor top that we should pay attention to.

In my point of view, market may become choppy for a while before a clear direction would be presented to us...

July 21-23rd is another time window to look at...

Next major time window will be end Sep. to early Oct.

this is how prices/numbers are related to each others

106= 0.333*319 the one who inspired me had shown this relationship to me in 2010.

now I am able to locate the top 285 in a similar fashion in 2015...

3333 td 20150710

bloody... shed

700 td 20150710

man, this is not a good level to reverse...

SSE td 20150709

an outside day, possible for a decent rebound

hsi possible support 20150708

Today, it has reached as low as 23700 which is right on the support trend line, and about the fibo. ratio of a bigger range 161-285. I believe it can provide a concrete support to hold for some days since the line was respected over some years.

However, if it fails one day, it should seek support near 223 or even 209 as shown in my previous post.

My guess:

新增說明文字

hsi wk 20150705

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/05/my-way-to-look-at-this-need-to-re.html

Bullish view:

a1- a "healthy" correction as most people 'hope'.
'Rationally', 249 or 239 should mark the end of this down swing comparing the green & red lines & fibo. retracement. More importantly, thicker blue trend line holds

a2- if I were bullish, I would expect a target near circle 7, utmost circle 5, before another "bullish" major trend would have come ...

'less' bullish or bearish view:
"break & re-test of trend line" scenario:

b1- after 239 level has broken and thus the thicker blue trend line, a stronger support should be between 223-229, and would follow with a strong sharp reversal to 248-255 level. finally, it would end the correction near 223-229 level for double bottom pattern or a lower leg for C wave of ABC zigzag correction

b2- (with ref. to cruel oil from Jun. 2014 to Jan. 2015) retest of trend-line as in b1) would lead to a drastic meltdown to level near 161 but the end would be yet to come ...

(this post is not meant for any trading advice...)

起(終)點

做人做Trade都一樣, 離開起點越遠, 越容易忘記起初的願望/想法/熱情, 被沿途景色人物off-track. 

http://koei1024.tumblr.com/post/60240833402

US 30(15 Minutes)20150701

ABC correction:
1.66xA=C

DAX td 20150701

within a channel... the only thing is to wait for a break-out...

Otherwise, follow swing trading method for a set-up (bearish when 10800 is broken or bullish when 11600 is broken)

US 30 wk 20150701

a trend line plus a retest, and then a break-away gap... what's more?

MACD divergence over 3 successive tops... come on! can there be the 4th top ...... ?