2014年11月28日 星期五

1928 Symmetrical Triangle 20141128

criteria:
1/ contracting swing/wave? yes
2/ declining volume? yes
3/ 4/ 5/....

note this is a continuation pattern, that means the original trend will usually resume after the pattern has completed...

fyi, line chart below is much easier to recognize this pattern projection of price according to website of this classical pattern is the the difference between first top and second bottom, approximately 55-56

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation







2014年11月26日 星期三

hsi two hypothetical patterns 20141127













since the swings are proportional (see below chart), I think there are 2 possibilities:

hypo. 1 (pink lines on right): A-B-C correction to the upside, that A (zig-zag) started from 22566 to 24133,
B (expanded flat) started from 24133 to 23253;
C now starts from 23253

hypo. 2 (red & white lines on left): symmetrical' broadening top, that likely to touch the upper and lower trend lines once more

I think hypo. 1 is more likely

2014年11月22日 星期六

sp500 1996-2014 vs hsi 1994-2008

it is the beginning, is the end



883 20141121

weekly view, it broke 11.40 but stopped above 11.20, an important price low on Oct. 4th 2011 (didn't use 11.10 on Sep 26, 2011 since 11.20 is a retest of bottom/leg)
temporarily, it broke a recent downtrend and a 2-day bottom at 11.82 on Oct. 30, 2014, followed up with a large volume indicating this could be a valid break-out. Lastly, in my point of view, it is just a rebounce before touching the weekly lower trendline.

Dax weekly 20141122


hypothesis 1:
a so-called 'symmetrical' broadening top, this turn will reach 10500 or higher

hypothesis 2:
a downward channel if this turn does not break the downtrend from 10050 and 9891

I think hypo 1 may have higher chance

http://education.howthemarketworks.com/stocks/intermediate/chartpatterns/symmetrical-broadening-top/

2014年11月7日 星期五

883 monthly 20141107

expect a little room to go south and touch the lower downtrend, could be possible to break previous bottom 11.42 ... 11.20 is the extreme...

1928 short term CIT + leg

 For this short term pull-back, a divergence can be seen in 15min chart when compare to MACD (12,28,9). Moreover, it also breaks the nearest downtrend.

It is expected a sharp surge to around 55 level. Time would be mid-end Nov.
today's low 42.80 is very close to the 0.618 retracement level, it should be expected a leg is formed successfully to explore more room to the north.