hsi support 20141215

might not be an exact support, should not be far

883 bottom projection 20141210

 since the channel/bottom trendline is broken, I think there are more room to go south with 2 of the possible projection of target bottom price as shown on pic.
Price below 10 will be VERY attractive if we look back 1-2 years later

1928 td 20141210

previous assumption was violated when bottom line of asymmetrical triangle was broken.
as the price sinks, a strong buying signal/pattern is in development - double bottom.

Time, this rebound could last until end Dec. or early Jan.
Price, probably 53-54

2840 wk 20141209

 today, even the (green) down trend line is broken. Time fits the change in trend as well (a little adjustment to "end point")

retracement at 78.6

sse vs dji 1931-1950

a pair of top & bottom will follow. After that, it could be very long time for bull

1928 Symmetrical Triangle 20141128

criteria:
1/ contracting swing/wave? yes
2/ declining volume? yes
3/ 4/ 5/....

note this is a continuation pattern, that means the original trend will usually resume after the pattern has completed...

fyi, line chart below is much easier to recognize this pattern projection of price according to website of this classical pattern is the the difference between first top and second bottom, approximately 55-56

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation

hsi two hypothetical patterns 20141127

since the swings are proportional (see below chart), I think there are 2 possibilities:

hypo. 1 (pink lines on right): A-B-C correction to the upside, that A (zig-zag) started from 22566 to 24133,
B (expanded flat) started from 24133 to 23253;
C now starts from 23253

hypo. 2 (red & white lines on left): symmetrical' broadening top, that likely to touch the upper and lower trend lines once more

I think hypo. 1 is more likely

sp500 1996-2014 vs hsi 1994-2008

it is the beginning, is the end

883 20141121

weekly view, it broke 11.40 but stopped above 11.20, an important price low on Oct. 4th 2011 (didn't use 11.10 on Sep 26, 2011 since 11.20 is a retest of bottom/leg)

temporarily, it broke a recent downtrend and a 2-day bottom at 11.82 on Oct. 30, 2014, followed up with a large volume indicating this could be a valid break-out. Lastly, in my point of view, it is just a rebounce before touching the weekly lower trendline.

Dax weekly 20141122

hypothesis 1:
a so-called 'symmetrical' broadening top, this turn will reach 10500 or higher

hypothesis 2:
a downward channel if this turn does not break the downtrend from 10050 and 9891

I think hypo 1 may have higher chance

http://education.howthemarketworks.com/stocks/intermediate/chartpatterns/symmetrical-broadening-top/

883 monthly 20141107

expect a little room to go south and touch the lower downtrend, could be possible to break previous bottom 11.42 ... 11.20 is the extreme...

1928 short term CIT + leg

 For this short term pull-back, a divergence can be seen in 15min chart when compare to MACD (12,28,9). Moreover, it also breaks the nearest downtrend.

It is expected a sharp surge to around 55 level. Time would be mid-end Nov.

today's low 42.80 is very close to the 0.618 retracement level, it should be expected a leg is formed successfully to explore more room to the north.

1928 20141017

1/ (hourly) flag formation at current level, can regard this as breaking to upside now and possible to continue for some days/weeks;

2/ (daily) broke the swing top@43.75 on Oct. 7th;

3/ (daily) today's volume is almost (or even higher at today's closed) that of Oct. 7th, could also be possible for a valid CIT;

4/ most importantly, Oct. 16th is one of the most important turning points within 2014.

Gold/2840.hk 3rd time at same level

- temporarily broke 892 but close at higher level, a nice false break
- intermediate turning point quite close to 0.667 or 2/3, projection in terms of time still works
- counter-trend bounce is expected until mid Dec., may touch green line again or around 950

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2014/09/2840-gold-etf-update-20140923.html

study of 1928's gartley pattern and ratios

 Gartley pattern under Larry Pesavento's latest version:
XA-AB-BC-CD and their inter-relationship
I assume X starts at 20.65 (not 33.50 this time) and A at 68.00

 end of CD is nicely on 0.618 retracement level, end of AB is almost perfect, just about 60 cents away.

 C is obviously ended at 0.618 retracement of AB

CD is about 1.33 (not 1.382) of AB starting from point C

US index 20141003

assume a fibo extension here:
the index has undergone an expanded (flat correction wave) A-B-C, ratio here is quite rare which is 3.14*A=C

it is far before the end, if one says it is just a retracement from previous range, the index stopped on 2/3.

2840 (gold etf) update 20140923

projected downtrend does not work perfectly, so I added another recent downtrend starting from Mar. 2014

Time projection to May 2015 for final bottom this intermediate term



http://blogcity.me/blog/reply_blog_edit.asp?f=Y5FN0M3HNS239764&id=623097

1928 finished wave A

diamond top, retest at 61.65, retraced to .764 level of previous range

A = 1.3333 x A (c) or
0.75 A = A (c)

2.236 x A (c) a' = A (c) c'









Below is a very nice picture of how stock respect fibo at different levels. closes around these levels also count. Plus one weekly signal bottom bar pattern after a decline lasted for months, so...

(in addition to whether .764 vs .786 or .618 vs .666 or .382 vs .333, one can assume either of them in advance if we know nothing of the subject under study. After viewing into the past data, one should know the tendency of which to use or similar/uncertain chance in occurrence)

883 & 939 wk 20140911

 reaction to .886 & downtrend line

(level of top adjusted)

reaction to downtrend line

hsi wk 20140911

contraction and expansion are everywhere...

883 higher volume at bottom and top

relatively higher volume at bottom and top... inspiring

key reversal bar pattern, high volume, what's more?

key reversal bar pattern, high volume (similar to mid Apr), what's more?

700 daily trend lines

daily trend lines...

new break-out? or near the end?

July 16-17 was not a reversal point, so we need to wait for a more valid, counter-confirm by other methods

http://thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html

current situation obviously not a 5 impulse wave condition as latter corrective wave overlapped previous impulse wave.
Therefore, we better try to understand it as a corrective wave condition. the lower and upper trendlines are converging and it is possible for a temporary throw-over as Mr. Bulkowski suggested.
What we need to wait is whether the market falls back to the area within the red triangle and initiate an reversal.

Indicators like MACD is shrinking which could lead to a break-out or sideway situation.
Volume is also shrinking with higher top, which could be a dangerous signal to bullish view. meaning buying power to support higher top is weakening.

there are 2 possible target of the c3 of C wave: 23947-23979, and 24152-24153
These are the extension from the a wave of c3 and A respectively.
I also added an old top 24111 in Dec. 2013 as a reference point.

1928 possible gartley pattern

 it was under monitor of its possible formation of a kind of gartley pattern, now the development has proven it is valid pattern formation

reference for gartley pattern, in fact mine is not perfect one according to strict rules like this... anywayz, the proportion mostly fits

sp500 target

although it is not my market for trading, reference to it sometimes is useful especially during the time or big reversal could happen... the later range is about 1.618 of the former range in same direction... what can be more conclusive than this?

hsi td 20140717

唔遲唔早, 時間o岩o岩好就出招 (outside bar?)
Bradley big day was July 16, 2014...

1928 20140715

a repeated occurrence (?!)