2015年12月30日 星期三
hsi review 20151230
(Dec. 30th is an outside bar with a lower price close)
1/ Swing analysis, 3-bar daily:
- trend
starting from end Oct. 23424, it is showing a down trend with "lower-top-lower-bottom"
condition that market can rebound but not exceed a previous top until a reversal takes
place.
- Price
swing sizes are 1465 and 1792 for down swings; 844 & 1207 for up swings. If 22217 is
confirmed as a swing top, I will expect a swing bottom from 20425 to 20752, roughly
higher than a swing bottom with price low 20368.
- Time
duration of down swings are both 21 trading days and 7-8 t.d. for up swings. I would
expect near or at Jan. 25th for a potential swing bottom
2/ Fibonacci
this turn seems to end with a top at 22217, which is 0.50 between 23424 & 21010 and
close to 0.666 between 22803 & 21010
3/ Geometry
- trendline, day high
although Dec. 24, 28 and 30th have moved above the line, only Dec. 24th can close
above it and then fall back
- trendline, closing price
on the third chart, only Dec. 24th has closed above the line for one day
(simply a false break)
- 1x1
it is broken the one plotted from 21010, and the line is well re-tested on Dec. 30th.
4/ Indicators
hourly MACD has shown a weakening tendency since Dec. 24th and a potential
reversal may have occurred.
5/ percentage stop
for sharp rebounds, I would use 1% trailing stop as to monitor potential turning points
2015年12月29日 星期二
2015年12月28日 星期一
ig hs50 20151228
how do we apply the rule of "fourth time at a same level" introduced by Mr. W.D. Gann? One of the online source (http://www.solarmatrix.com/wdgann/lessons/LESSON1.htm) shows:
Rule 4: Fourth time at the same level.
Fourth time through a level of support or resistance is powerful and one should go with the direction of the professionals.
When a "level" is diagonal (instead of horizontal), I believe the same rule can be applied. Therefore, if the diagonal line has been respected as a support for three times, it will be important to watch for and follow the direction when it is broken. This is a collective result of the action by professionals.
2015年12月25日 星期五
2015年12月22日 星期二
2015年12月15日 星期二
加息令資金流入還是流出?
好多人估美國會聽日加息, 會引發環球資金班師回美, 令到美元會進一步升值. 投資O既野好多時都係未來O既事discount到今日發生, 除非突發事件, 好少話去到發生O個日先出現影響.
加息無錯係會令到存款利息略為增加, 令到資金流入, 但這只是事實O既其中一面; 加息同樣會令投資者考慮減少新造借貸, 即係整體貸款規模下跌 (還完錢唔再借或借少O的), 唔好睇少呢種貸款規模下跌O既影響, 因為"吹"出來O既泡沬無增加甚至縮細, 資產價格係可以跌得好快, 因為人人都比銀行或財仔 call 緊 loan (e.g. mortgage, stock/saving backed loan). 再復雜D, 世界上有咁多低息甚至負息貨幣可以借 (歐/日元), 美金借貸成本上升仲會唔會吸引到人走去借美元炒上炒落甚至投資?
就好似chemical bonding, attraction & repulsion 係同時存在, 只係睇下邊種力大D就決定電子電核分子之間個距離; 加息個情況都有D似, 一體兩/多面.
最近O既垃圾債爆煲, 投資者提早沽水走人, 即係資金流出緊呢個市. 會唔會引發骨牌效應令到其他美元資產出現資金流走? 世上咁多野都咁復雜, 有邊個真係可以斷定加息係會令資金流入美元/美國, 定係資金流走呢?
Technically, 美金個一百幾廿年O既趨勢係跌 (貶值), 間唔中會升番一年半載. 用美元兌黃金O個口價就一清二楚鳥;
1971年之前, 35蚊美金可以換到 1 OZ 黃金; 2015年今時今日要 1061美金. 即係黃金升左差唔多30倍, 又或者可以話45年來美金跌到得番3.29%
More recently, monthly/weekly圖會容易睇到雙頂加MACD背馳, 都係需要留意係咪已經見頂.
2015年12月14日 星期一
USD index 20151214
- a possible double top scenario
- weekly MACD divergence
- bearish if it breaks 95-96 level, a trend line from Sep & Oct 2015
hsi td 20151214
I was hesitated in reacting to this down move, what is left for coming weeks would be a important top for placing a put. Hope I could seize this chance.
2015年12月10日 星期四
hsi 20151210
2015年12月8日 星期二
2015年12月4日 星期五
偷桃
2015年12月2日 星期三
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