hsi 2000 vs 2015 - time comparison

Case 1 - a re-test of 18000 level before resuming a bullish cycle

there seems to have a 'M' shape pattern (the bigger green circles) developing since1st half of 2016 until today. If time of 41 weeks accounts as 1/2 of the whole bearish cycle, a re-test of 18000 level would be expected by Jan. 2017 before a bullish cycle resumes  (some problem with the time indication on the chart, same as below)

Case 2 - a melt-down of market

If time of 41 weeks accounts as 1/3 of the whole bearish cycle, the coming heavy sell-off would end by Jan. 2017, and a vigorous rebounce to an old bottom (~18000 level) and move in sideway from range 13000 - 18000 before a bullish cycle resumes