hs50 ig 4-hr 20160129

pt 1/ here pinpoints one the weakness to take advantage of MACD "divergence" versus price. Therefore, always place a stop order to safeguard our capital

pt 2/ MACD divergence for 2nd time, it was a nice catch if long a call using MACD bullish cross shortly after

pt 3/ a break of trend is a more promising signal

pt 4/ re-test can also be seen here, could be a better entry point than pt 2 or 3 when time value is considered

hsi td 20160125

In my opinion, the recent down move (22217-18534) is quite similar to the one in June-July 2015 (27470-22836).

1/ swing:
since no recent swing top is crossed, the trend is still down. However, the latest down swing is about 3600 pts. which has over-balanced the swing pattern starting from end Oct. 2015. I would expect a retracement to about 0.382-0.500 (203xx or 210xx) levels. These two levels are also the swing bottoms on Sep. 29, 2015 & Dec. 14, 2015 respectively which could provide a certain resistance to the market.

2/ fibo:
0.382 or 0.500 (203xx or 210xx) levels between 23423-18534

3/ geometry:
it would look nice if it could reach the blue line and form a lower swing top resulting in another down move

Dax 20160125

Pattern:
it could be undergoing a contracting triangle with horizontal line about 9338 and downtrend line from 12391 & 11431 (CFD prices). A break of horizontal line may lead to vigorous down move

fibo:
it contracts with certain ratios (0.382 and then 0.666) I expect the same here with a MACD bearish in a smaller time frame to pinpoint a potential top

Generally speaking, it gives a bearish outlook

ig hs50 20160111

although it sank lower in today's trading hours, if it can break the downtrend line, there will be a hope for a decent rebound

hsi short term rebound target

In the perspective of swing trading, it would find a resistance at level 210 which is about the same level of 0.382 between 22217 & 20324. It will be a quite bearish signal for a big down move.

For a valid re-test of trend-line, it could either jump to 212-213 (also 0.50 lv).

If it is undergoing a downward channel, it could even go up to 215 (0.618 lv) and about the same swing size as 21010-22217.

I think the importance: 210>213>215, just need to wait for a signal from other perspective, e.g. indicators, etc.

Time according to swing trading is 5 or 8 trading days, possible for a top on Jan. 14 or 19th.

Germany td 20160107

very close to the line and fibo level, a potential temporary support

The old way, a good way

MACD bearish crossed for weekly and daily, but the market may exceed some points below previous 203 bottom. I believe a temporary support at 203 level is possible, high volume (e.g. 80-100B) would be a good rationale for that.

hsi review 20151230 - follow-up

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/12/hsi-review-20151230.html

20425 is reached today, wait for another opportunity for down move