2015年8月16日 星期日
hsi 2015 vs 2007 vs 1997
people always say: history repeats itself... but HOW?
some believes in Elliot wave theory that any market can be classified into impulse waves and corrective waves which make a market look alike in many different time-frame (that's self-similarity behaviour of fractals) It's like how leaves, branches are grown on trees.
One's belief system influences his/her behaviour. Thus, building up a "reliable" and "beneficial" system is crucial to anyone who wants to participate in this survival game.
In trading world, there are too many aspects/skills/methodology of technical analysis to name. A very important objective is we are here to earn a living as a basic requirement, and for those who are more skillful/gifted, they can even earn a fortune by trading (or investing). For me, investing is just part of the game of trading, that we bet on probability a public list company/index future/currency could move in favour of us, no matter it is by analysing financial report, GDP forecast, import&export data, or OHLC price data at a longer time-frame.
Above chart is a comparison of the wave forms of hsi in different periods. A point in common is that there is a sharp fall followed by a side-way development. Certainly, this is only for educational purpose, not a trading advice.
In the mini-chart on the left, since the correction wave was an expanded flat where B exceeded the start of A and C exceeded the start B. This was my initial assumption when the market reach 228-239 level.
My guess now is there will be a top near 266 regardless of which type of the corrective wave will form
"Nothing just happens, everything is planned" in the view of the trading index/stock/commodity, there are usually something left for us to trace.
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