A way to determine a CIT by Mr. James Hyerczyk

this is an extracted graph from Mr. James A Hyerczyk's book about swing trading method, which shows one of the ways in determining a change in trend.

For me, the move from 285-228 was obvious that there would be a possible CIT. However, in the perspective of swing trading, it hasn't confirmed a CIT yet. When the market reached as low as 208, it fits into the pattern defined and we should expect a retracement to a higher level before the market resume its main trend down. My guess of pattern on July 8th based on wave theory is compliant to this swing set-up, too.

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/07/hsi-possible-support-20150708.html

Expecting an end of wave B

I am not surprised with some wrong expectations or entries since these are part of the trading game. What really surprises to me is the target & pattern I guessed on July 8th... Sometimes instinct is more accurate than logical thinking... Moreover, I still insist a corrective wave undergoing based on my assumption.

After the two scenarios of a retracement between 228-256 and a double bottom have been rejected, now the only possible one left is an expanded flat wave with wave B at an extension of wave A (228-256).

Actually, there are two possible targets for this turn, since they are really close (just about 1% apart), I personally prefer 216 than 213 due to a higher chance of occurrence of .764 from my observation.

A possible confluence level for US

conditionally, this confluence level should provide a certain of support.

If it holds, I would expect a trading opportunity using Gartley pattern provided that 184-164 is AB move.

hold or break?

hold or break? a retracement for hsi and double bottom for hsce?

hsi 2015 vs 2007 vs 1997

people always say: history repeats itself... but HOW?

some believes in Elliot wave theory that any market can be classified into impulse waves and corrective waves which make a market look alike in many different time-frame (that's self-similarity behaviour of fractals) It's like how leaves, branches are grown on trees.

One's belief system influences his/her behaviour. Thus, building up a "reliable" and "beneficial" system is crucial to anyone who wants to participate in this survival game.

In trading world, there are too many aspects/skills/methodology of technical analysis to name. A very important objective is we are here to earn a living as a basic requirement, and for those who are more skillful/gifted, they can even earn a fortune by trading (or investing). For me, investing is just part of the game of trading, that we bet on probability a public list company/index future/currency could move in favour of us, no matter it is by analysing financial report, GDP forecast, import&export data, or OHLC price data at a longer time-frame.

Above chart is a comparison of the wave forms of hsi in different periods. A point in common is that there is a sharp fall followed by a side-way development. Certainly, this is only for educational purpose, not a trading advice.

In the mini-chart on the left, since the correction wave was an expanded flat where B exceeded the start of A and C exceeded the start B. This was my initial assumption when the market reach 228-239 level.

My guess now is there will be a top near 266 regardless of which type of the corrective wave will form

"Nothing just happens, everything is planned" in the view of the trading index/stock/commodity, there are usually something left for us to trace.

A guess of coming pattern (revised Aug. 10, 15)

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/07/a-guess-of-coming-pattern-rev-jul-20.html

with the given time frame (early/mid Aug.), market has completed a 50% retracement.
a situation of bullish but rather side-way could happen until mid/end Sep.