2014年7月23日 星期三

new break-out? or near the end?

July 16-17 was not a reversal point, so we need to wait for a more valid, counter-confirm by other methods

http://thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html

current situation obviously not a 5 impulse wave condition as latter corrective wave overlapped previous impulse wave.
Therefore, we better try to understand it as a corrective wave condition. the lower and upper trendlines are converging and it is possible for a temporary throw-over as Mr. Bulkowski suggested.
What we need to wait is whether the market falls back to the area within the red triangle and initiate an reversal.

Indicators like MACD is shrinking which could lead to a break-out or sideway situation.
Volume is also shrinking with higher top, which could be a dangerous signal to bullish view. meaning buying power to support higher top is weakening.


there are 2 possible target of the c3 of C wave: 23947-23979, and 24152-24153
These are the extension from the a wave of c3 and A respectively.
I also added an old top 24111 in Dec. 2013 as a reference point.

沒有留言: