hsif td 20170426

in future market, a break-out with high volume can be observed.

short-term possibly changes to uptrend

for short-term, positive reversals in both RSI and MACD.

same here for short-term, positive reversals in both RSI and MACD, volume was shrinking during the consolidating wedge which is normal. We need a break-out to the north with extra high volume to confirm the wedge.

hsi wk 20170322

hsi 20170306 - buying low

Everyone in the markets knows that buying low and selling high are the key to make the most profit from the market. However, where/when is low or high enough? No standard answer. Some says when there is a blood-shed for a low to happen, a change in major trend, historical cycle low/high, etc.

One of my favourites is RSI 14-period that historical movements are ranged within 0 to 100. Certainly, it doesn't mean a high with RSI 100 moving to a low with RSI 0, which all depends the trends.

We can just try to buy at a "relative low" and/or sell at a "relative high" level, which is profitable enough in a trade. This is what we aim for and consider to bear some risk in the market. We are not scientists nor mathematicians who chase for ideal case or perfection.

If we look at RSI on a monthly chart, it reveals a way for most people who are patient enough to wait for a relative low to buy. However, to predict a high to sell, I am not confident to mark a specific range as it really depends whether the market is in a bearish or bullish cycle.

hsi 20170302

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2017/02/hsi-td-20170221.html
- 3 signals observed
- in addition, a re-test at the white trend line

Furthermore, from its weekly chart:
- a potential double top (two red arrows)
- a potential evening star (white circle)

hsi td 20170221

a few signals to look for a reversal: 1/ breaking of supporting uptrend line on price chart 2/ fall below the bottom line of this bullish trend on RSI chart. 3/ MACD bearish cross?

hsi 20170220

in end December 2016, I expected for a rebound to 22500 level. (http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2016/12/hsi-hr-20161229.html). But it was far too early for a top to appear, it evolved into a consolidation around that level (mid Jan., 23000-22600).

As a trader, I admit I can make mistake. Never fatal since my entry is relatively small. Most importantly, in order to survive in the market, we need to stay sharp with changes that are against our expectation and shall cut loss fast.

For the moment, there is no obvious signal showing any weakness in market. One should note the decreasing volume since Feb. 15th would indicate a top is forming or not.

hsi hr 20170203

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2017/01/hsi-hr-20170126.html

it has broken lower boundary of the channel, let's expect sth to go down for some moments

hsi hr 20170126

on Jan. 23rd, the reversal hasn't begun since the support was held (red line).

Now the market may have developed into a 3-drive pattern that every up moves appear almost symmetrical in price and time. MACD also signals two  divergences of the 3 consecutive tops which could indicate the market is running out of steam...

hsi 20170116

1) breaking of uptrend, pay attention to a reversal or a consolidation to follow

2) after tested the RSI bearish upper limit, we can try to have a clear position preparing for a down move

hsi hr 20170106

From previous post (http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2016/12/hsi-hr-20161229.html), a negative reversal was expected. Now, there is a clue for a potential negative reversal showing weakness at 225-226xx level which is a confluence target at different ranges. It is interesting to watch out for a change at this level.

hsi hr 20161229

hsi hr 20161221

hsi td comparison - 2008 vs 2016-17

SP500 (CFD) diamond top

diamond top isn't a common pattern. When it is confirmed, the force of reversal could be very strong...

re-test seems done

re-test seems done, market has its own way

hsi 20161213

just a guess on its development

hsi wk 20161212

see if it holds, even it was broken, a re-test of the line seem probable.

Gold vs Bitcoin 20161124

hsi - trade with the bigger trend

we always talk about the main trend, it merely depends on what timeframe we are trading. If someone is trading for a few hours/days, just follow the trend in the weekly/monthly chart which would give us a higher probability to be correct with a higher downward momentum in downtrend, vice versa.

hsi td downward channel

a rough idea of market trend

Swing trading chart, see if you can notice a change in trend :

當人口老化遇上拒當樓奴潮

人口老化, 手上有資產會賣出以過日, 樓宇供應增加, equlibrium price 下跌;

年青一代拒當樓奴, 樓宇需求下降, Qp 下跌.

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E9%9D%92%E5%B9%B4%E6%8B%92%E7%95%B6%E6%A8%93%E5%A5%B4-%E5%83%8527-%E6%93%AC%E7%BD%AE%E6%A5%AD-225519867.html


香港政府土地供應由近二十年嘅低位拉扯向上, 樓宇供應增加, Qp 下跌...

http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201611/16/P2016111600443.htm

黎緊30年, 投資私人住宅市場, 係長升長有, 定長跌長有, 定係橫行呢?

hsi mth 2-bar key reversal pattern

learning from the past: HSI vs DJI

For easier comparison, the two charts are in semi-log and both start with a major historical low (DJI: the great depression; HSI: during 1973-74, the index dropped 91.54%...). In my point of view, it is a kind of consolidation/sideways in a large scale before the next dominant up trend comes.

I generally believe a bottom near 161 or 106 in order to reversing the trend from de-leveraging process.

hsi-wk-zic-zac-abc-correction - follow-up

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2016/08/hsi-wk-zic-zac-abc-correction.html

a typical waveform in a long term down trend, we are either near the turning point of a B wave of ABC correction or II wave of I-II-III-IV-V wave. Considering the macroscopic view of a consolidation pattern from 1996 until (roughly) 2020, personally a ABC correction is more preferred.

1928 hr 20160831

AB=CD pattern - hsi, 1928

it's quite common to find a AB=CD pattern within a shorter timeframe. when it appears, it is rather a good trade with high gain:loss ratio.

AB=CD patterns sometimes could be a counter-trend movement, which is similar to a wave 2/4 of an impulsive wave; wave B of a correction wave. Market followers can easily recognize them and can even prepare to make use of them in order to trade with trend.

Book name: Trade what you see - How to profit from pattern recognition

Author: Larry Lesavento, Leslie Jouflas

hsce 30min 20160825 - follow up

it is not a bad trading tool, it gives the target and the stop (crossing the previous top when long put).

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2016/08/hsce-30min-20160825.html

A guess of future movements - hsi

hsce 30min 20160825

the bounce target shouldn't exceed the previous top and RSI negative reversal will be perfect. Look for RSI reach around 60.

hsi 20160823

Weekly and daily are both currently inside bars, need to wait for an explosion ignited by sth...

cruel oil td 20160823

nothing is safer than being bearish at a lower top...

SP500 CFD futures - real-time application of negative reversal

Reversal - a top or bottom?

Expected a bottom on Aug. 16th 2016 but most likely a top... coincide with the annoucement of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect 深港通...

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2016/08/hsi-td-20160803.html
http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2016/07/hsi-time-projection-20160726.html

hsi wk zic zac ABC correction

A more reasonable assumption would be a ABC correction wave

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory

hsi td 20160812 AB=CD

if 22976 is the final destination of this turn, it will be a perfect AB=CD pattern/scenario (though time factor not 1:1). 22977 is also a price -315 degree from 28589.