DAX - possible descending channel

should find more room into the north if the upper trend line is broken

hsce td 20150326

a guess only (previous guess on hsi was removed due to some mistake in calculating the time)

hsi td 20150318

in order to understand the development, calculating the ratio of price and/or time is useful.

be patient a top with very high volume, for example 130-150 billions HKD

sse vs dji 1931-1950 -follow up

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2014/12/sse-vs-dji-1931-1950.html 

obviously, this turn is near the end

(repost below)

hsi td 20150305

939 wk 20150217

應該仲有得升一浸...

2840 wk 20150217

SSE hr 20150211

MACD divergence. If it follows with a break of downtrend, one should expect room into the north...

1928 analogy

50% is very important for many things, esp. stock

plan for the worst, hope for the best

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E6%B2%99%E7%94%B0%E8%A1%97%E5%9D%8A-%E7%99%B2%E5%83%B9%E9%9B%A3%E9%81%8F-213904656.html

crazy people matching with crazy market, that's why history repeats itself but in its own way and dimension.

the index on the right dropped 66% from the top, it would make many people outrageous if it happens somewhere else...

2840 (gold etf) wk 20150123

breakout of a recent downtrend... Golden age has come!
MACD divergence of bottoms (July 13/Dec 13/Nov 13)

SSE hourly 20150123

be patient to wait for breakout (up or down)...

http://www.forex-tribe.com/Descending-Broadening-Right-Angle.php

hsi support 20141215

might not be an exact support, should not be far

883 bottom projection 20141210

 since the channel/bottom trendline is broken, I think there are more room to go south with 2 of the possible projection of target bottom price as shown on pic.
Price below 10 will be VERY attractive if we look back 1-2 years later

1928 td 20141210

previous assumption was violated when bottom line of asymmetrical triangle was broken.
as the price sinks, a strong buying signal/pattern is in development - double bottom.

Time, this rebound could last until end Dec. or early Jan.
Price, probably 53-54

2840 wk 20141209

 today, even the (green) down trend line is broken. Time fits the change in trend as well (a little adjustment to "end point")

retracement at 78.6

sse vs dji 1931-1950

a pair of top & bottom will follow. After that, it could be very long time for bull

1928 Symmetrical Triangle 20141128

criteria:
1/ contracting swing/wave? yes
2/ declining volume? yes
3/ 4/ 5/....

note this is a continuation pattern, that means the original trend will usually resume after the pattern has completed...

fyi, line chart below is much easier to recognize this pattern projection of price according to website of this classical pattern is the the difference between first top and second bottom, approximately 55-56

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation

hsi two hypothetical patterns 20141127

since the swings are proportional (see below chart), I think there are 2 possibilities:

hypo. 1 (pink lines on right): A-B-C correction to the upside, that A (zig-zag) started from 22566 to 24133,
B (expanded flat) started from 24133 to 23253;
C now starts from 23253

hypo. 2 (red & white lines on left): symmetrical' broadening top, that likely to touch the upper and lower trend lines once more

I think hypo. 1 is more likely

sp500 1996-2014 vs hsi 1994-2008

it is the beginning, is the end

883 20141121

weekly view, it broke 11.40 but stopped above 11.20, an important price low on Oct. 4th 2011 (didn't use 11.10 on Sep 26, 2011 since 11.20 is a retest of bottom/leg)

temporarily, it broke a recent downtrend and a 2-day bottom at 11.82 on Oct. 30, 2014, followed up with a large volume indicating this could be a valid break-out. Lastly, in my point of view, it is just a rebounce before touching the weekly lower trendline.

Dax weekly 20141122

hypothesis 1:
a so-called 'symmetrical' broadening top, this turn will reach 10500 or higher

hypothesis 2:
a downward channel if this turn does not break the downtrend from 10050 and 9891

I think hypo 1 may have higher chance

http://education.howthemarketworks.com/stocks/intermediate/chartpatterns/symmetrical-broadening-top/

883 monthly 20141107

expect a little room to go south and touch the lower downtrend, could be possible to break previous bottom 11.42 ... 11.20 is the extreme...

1928 short term CIT + leg

 For this short term pull-back, a divergence can be seen in 15min chart when compare to MACD (12,28,9). Moreover, it also breaks the nearest downtrend.

It is expected a sharp surge to around 55 level. Time would be mid-end Nov.

today's low 42.80 is very close to the 0.618 retracement level, it should be expected a leg is formed successfully to explore more room to the north.

1928 20141017

1/ (hourly) flag formation at current level, can regard this as breaking to upside now and possible to continue for some days/weeks;

2/ (daily) broke the swing top@43.75 on Oct. 7th;

3/ (daily) today's volume is almost (or even higher at today's closed) that of Oct. 7th, could also be possible for a valid CIT;

4/ most importantly, Oct. 16th is one of the most important turning points within 2014.

Gold/2840.hk 3rd time at same level

- temporarily broke 892 but close at higher level, a nice false break
- intermediate turning point quite close to 0.667 or 2/3, projection in terms of time still works
- counter-trend bounce is expected until mid Dec., may touch green line again or around 950

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2014/09/2840-gold-etf-update-20140923.html

study of 1928's gartley pattern and ratios

 Gartley pattern under Larry Pesavento's latest version:
XA-AB-BC-CD and their inter-relationship
I assume X starts at 20.65 (not 33.50 this time) and A at 68.00

 end of CD is nicely on 0.618 retracement level, end of AB is almost perfect, just about 60 cents away.

 C is obviously ended at 0.618 retracement of AB

CD is about 1.33 (not 1.382) of AB starting from point C

US index 20141003

assume a fibo extension here:
the index has undergone an expanded (flat correction wave) A-B-C, ratio here is quite rare which is 3.14*A=C

it is far before the end, if one says it is just a retracement from previous range, the index stopped on 2/3.

2840 (gold etf) update 20140923

projected downtrend does not work perfectly, so I added another recent downtrend starting from Mar. 2014

Time projection to May 2015 for final bottom this intermediate term



http://blogcity.me/blog/reply_blog_edit.asp?f=Y5FN0M3HNS239764&id=623097

1928 finished wave A

diamond top, retest at 61.65, retraced to .764 level of previous range

A = 1.3333 x A (c) or
0.75 A = A (c)

2.236 x A (c) a' = A (c) c'









Below is a very nice picture of how stock respect fibo at different levels. closes around these levels also count. Plus one weekly signal bottom bar pattern after a decline lasted for months, so...

(in addition to whether .764 vs .786 or .618 vs .666 or .382 vs .333, one can assume either of them in advance if we know nothing of the subject under study. After viewing into the past data, one should know the tendency of which to use or similar/uncertain chance in occurrence)