+-x÷, +用來計人工; -用來計成本 ; x用來計增長/衰退; ÷用來計資金/風險管理

2015年6月29日星期一

fib sequence hidden - follow up (repost, Aug. 20 2012)

http://blog.yahoo.com/_EIL6RUYGCQKNW6V4WX3AH3GAZI/articles/624076

假設香港會跟美國1973-1980個PLAN行, 可能會係好似收音機信號(AM)咁…

(repost below)

hsi 2007-2014 vs dji 1929-1942 + 1973-1980 (repost, Aug. 10, 2012)

http://blog.yahoo.com/_EIL6RUYGCQKNW6V4WX3AH3GAZI/articles/633648

對比英, 美國市場, 香港真係歷史非常有限, 從未試過數以年計嘅大型correction, 要compare就惟有向佢地取經

我非常認同香港升穿21760嘅機會唔係無, 不過至少呢幾年內就非常之低啦, 比啲錢比C9同Ray. merriman賺就明白喇.

近100年內最差嘅情況, 例如美國1929開始嘅大蕭條, 去到1942先完成, 歷時12年8個月. 值得留意嘅係1942年2月個底都只係低1938年2月個底6點/6.1%. 若果plug-in 港股2007年起近似嘅大型correction數值並假設有參考價值嘅底頂, 要百年”二” 遇香港都只可能會再比16170跌多6.1% ???(15,183???) 當時仲要係第一次世界大戰之後, 百業待興喎; 近呢20-30年都無大規模國際戰爭…

同美國 1973-1980年比較就更樂觀, 中段見底後基本上係橫行, 都算係swing trader paradise. 假設完成整個correction嘅下一個大底係16170跌到16020 ??? 與香港現在所用的時間比較, 形態近似度可能同1973-1980年接近, 即7年兩個月(由2007年11月起計, 可能約在2015年1月完成???) 若果將兩幅圖泊埋睇, 2013年底可能似啲(非精密科學, 不可盡信)
追隨高手係好事, 可以學到好多知識上, 技巧上, 心理上嘅野. 不過, 如果去到一個程度近乎迷信, 失去左自我和批判思維, 咁仲點獨立思考決定每日買賣? 決定每日生活上嘅細節?

(nevermind the swing set-up here… not very important indeed)

fib sequence hidden (repost, Jun. 7 2012)

assume the start is correct… and wave pattern that follows

http://blog.yahoo.com/douglas_blog/articles/623940

It gives the reason why the range contracts around .618

http://blog.yahoo.com/douglas_blog/articles/621866

寫在歷史裡的趨勢 ep4 (repost, Mar. 21, 2013)

http://blog.yahoo.com/douglas_blog/articles/984127
http://blog.yahoo.com/douglas_blog/articles/1019975

翻查以往記錄, 最接近DOUBLE6描述嘅走勢會係右圖…

或者咁 …

(uploaded Apr. 30, 2013)

寫在歷史裡的趨勢 ep3 (repost, Jan. 31, 2013)

http://blog.yahoo.com/douglas_blog/articles/946991

basically, blue-blue path should be dominant,
parity … against buy & hold or long position

寫在歷史裡的趨勢 ep2 (repost, Dec. 23, 2012)

http://blog.yahoo.com/douglas_blog/articles/940506

寫在歷史裡的趨勢 ep1 (repost, Dec 21, 2012)

1/ 比較弱勢, 先破5, 後破3
2/ 平衡發展, 不破5, 後破
3/ 比較強勢, 不破5, 不破???

(labeling here is just to facilitate mparison, may not be exact wave counts)

Contraction for the 4th time? (repost, May 28, 2012)

some of us may have already noticed these, but
what if it can / cannot settle at 618 this time?
what implication if it fails?
why it keeps contracting?
when is the end of contraction? i think it is not common in a macro view (before 2007) notifiable with naked eyes …
i associate this with black holes, where things are pulled to have a very high density, which have a powerful attractive force over the surroundings…

HSI as an example of fractal theory (repost, Dec. 19, 2011)

Fractal 的特徵: 從大到細, 都obey同一個pattern, 即係self-similarity.

樹枝既生長亦係一個較容易察看的例子.

自性大而無外小而無內,

Something about Fractal (repost, Dec. 19, 2011)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%88%86%E5%BD%A2

應用

主條目：碎形分析

如上所述，隨機碎形可以用來描述許多高度不規則的現實世界的物件。其他碎形的應用亦包括[4]：

醫學中組織切片的歸類
碎形風景或海岸線複雜性
酵素/酵素學（米曼氏動力學）
製做新音樂
製作許多的藝術形式
Signal and image compression
地震學
土壤力學中的碎形
電腦及電視遊戲設計，尤其是有機背景的CG和部份的過程生成
斷口分析和斷裂力學
碎形天線－使用碎形形狀的小尺寸天線
小角度X光散射
新嬉皮 T恤和其他的時尚服飾
偽裝圖樣的製作，如MARPAT
數位日晷
價格序列的技術分析（見艾略特波浪理論）

About Ting Hai Effect (Adam Cheng Effect, 丁蟹/秋官效應)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ting_Hai_effect

financial practitioners and retail investors in Hong Kong market have a common belief that whenever there is a drama shown on TV with actor Mr. Adam Cheng, it is a "sign" that the stock market would fall dramatically... self-fulfilling anyway~

As a signal, it is rather too accurate to believe this is a random phenomenon. But first of all, who can decide which drama to show at what time? I am not going into details about conspiracy but control over many aspects in society is very common. In financial market, people have big interest to "cheat" or "manipulate", usually legally... look at those investment banks, they make money no matter the market goes up or down or side-way.

My idea is:
it is a signal to insiders
it is fooling outsiders

この世に偶然なんてない、あるのは必然だけ
(translate: There is no such thing as coincidence, only inevitably;
譯:這個世上沒有什麼偶然，有的只有必然)

2015年6月26日星期五

Nikkei 225(Daily)20150626

Although the extension ratio doesn't fit into the 3-drive pattern condition, with naked eye, it is easy to observe a formation of channel/wedge instead.

This makes sense due to its strong bullish trend, either it is a rising wedge (reversal pattern) or a bullish channel (continuous pattern)

time of correction swing is getting longer and longer and on the other hand, time of rising swing is getting shorter and shorter, classic swing pattern told us it is running of steam...

2015年6月25日星期四

883 td 20150625

hopefully, it is developing into side-way condition ...

in extreme case, (main trend down in red box) there may be a moderate correction before the last leg has gone down...provided 10-20% is ''moderate'' enough here...

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/05/883-td-20150520.html

2015年6月22日星期一

Gannalyst... is gone

Gannalyst, although it is the second charting software I tried (first is the aptistock, no longer in use), it is the one I have been using ... for over 6 years. It needs some extra work to feed in the data source but it is worth the effort...

Geometry, Fibonacci, angle/speed/trend lines, time count, division/projection of time and price, logarithm, etc. many things I learnt through using this software

hope it will be back soon!

2015年6月19日星期五

Key moment

say cheezzzzzzzeeeee

2015年6月16日星期二

SSE td 20150616

a break of a recent uptrend line... omg

2015年6月10日星期三

hsi 20150610

isn't it a double top? 2nd weaker than the 1st in terms of volume

isn't it a typical distribution topping pattern?

hsce 5-min expanded triangle

this is a short-term view, but it is clear that it is moving sideway.

Whether it will be confirmed as a continuation expanded triangle or a bottoming pattern, it is better to wait until its break-thru and act...

2015年6月8日星期一

hsce td 20150608

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/03/hsce-td-20150326.html

not bad at timing tops and bots
next turning windows:
1/ June 7-9, I believe it is a top...
2/ July 15-16, wish not a fall after a cliff...

700 td 20150608

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2015/05/700-td-20150504.html

restest? Mama Mia!

shrinking volume supports this set-up

2015年6月4日星期四

DAX - a market leader?

After a valid retracement, should not be very hard to anticipate the near-term trend?

2015年5月31日星期日

Just for fun

butterfly pattern?

2015年5月20日星期三

my way to look

my way to look at this, need to re-adjust the "x-axis" horizontal line by myself...

883 td 20150520

expect for just a retracement? or to find a hellboy in the deep valley?

2015年5月16日星期六

market is full of opportunities

market is full of opportunity, set your mind free... free from media which is sometimes giving wrong signal to attract outsiders/less mature investors leading to catastrophic results... you know, this is a cruel surivial game that those superior players (insiders/mature/experienced/skillful), of just a few percent of the crowd, take away the money earned hard by the inferior

concentrate on market movements, great opportunities are everywhere waiting for those who can follow its trend. I take a few examples from HSI only by a glance, tactics is 'buying when previous swing top is broken'.