Gold vs Bitcoin 20161124

hsi - trade with the bigger trend

we always talk about the main trend, it merely depends on what timeframe we are trading. If someone is trading for a few hours/days, just follow the trend in the weekly/monthly chart which would give us a higher probability to be correct with a higher downward momentum in downtrend, vice versa.

hsi td downward channel

a rough idea of market trend

Swing trading chart, see if you can notice a change in trend :

當人口老化遇上拒當樓奴潮

人口老化, 手上有資產會賣出以過日, 樓宇供應增加, equlibrium price 下跌;

年青一代拒當樓奴, 樓宇需求下降, Qp 下跌.

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E9%9D%92%E5%B9%B4%E6%8B%92%E7%95%B6%E6%A8%93%E5%A5%B4-%E5%83%8527-%E6%93%AC%E7%BD%AE%E6%A5%AD-225519867.html


香港政府土地供應由近二十年嘅低位拉扯向上, 樓宇供應增加, Qp 下跌...

http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201611/16/P2016111600443.htm

黎緊30年, 投資私人住宅市場, 係長升長有, 定長跌長有, 定係橫行呢?

hsi mth 2-bar key reversal pattern

learning from the past: HSI vs DJI

For easier comparison, the two charts are in semi-log and both start with a major historical low (DJI: the great depression; HSI: during 1973-74, the index dropped 91.54%...). In my point of view, it is a kind of consolidation/sideways in a large scale before the next dominant up trend comes.

I generally believe a bottom near 161 or 106 in order to reversing the trend from de-leveraging process.

hsi-wk-zic-zac-abc-correction - follow-up

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2016/08/hsi-wk-zic-zac-abc-correction.html

a typical waveform in a long term down trend, we are either near the turning point of a B wave of ABC correction or II wave of I-II-III-IV-V wave. Considering the macroscopic view of a consolidation pattern from 1996 until (roughly) 2020, personally a ABC correction is more preferred.