sp500 expanding triangle 20201030

if we end up resting on the lower trend line (yellow), it will be a "less worse" scenario for us... what have happened in March 2020 and even Dec. 2018 were not that bad indeed.

what if that trend line doesn't hold? it will be disastrous or a break-down in everything. We might see a phoenix rebirth.

From finance to international trading: changing from high leverage to low/no leverage; globalization of good & services to localization. 

From culture to daily behaviour: we used to work and/or study in certain places (office/factory/school) and meet up in public areas, which will change into work/study from home, video conference, e-learning, automation of production, not to mention revolutionary changes by A.I. and very fast broadband/transmission speed, mobile devices, VR & AR technologies, 3D printing, etc.

hsi 20200122.png

 still holds: lower top, lower bottom

SP500 weekly 20200904

 

what a perfect demonstration of drawing a trend line!!!

credit: https://youtu.be/QCu8SqTnt6I

883 wk 20190122

a top and a fibo retracement level form a consolidation & provided a support

175.hk 20190109

even it has reached a consolidation level in the past, it still has a long way to find a support at current level... however, room for further drop appeared not much.

1857年至今年利率走勢

700 wk 20181128

just the beginning

hsi mth 20181127

175, 20181126

even hit a bottom, still a long way to recover most drop...

883 td 20181022 - seem bullish

供樓負擔比率升至74%

https://paper.hket.com/article/2135936/%E8%B2%BF%E6%88%B0%E5%8A%A0%E6%81%AF%E5%A4%BE%E6%93%8A%20%E4%BA%8C%E6%89%8B%E7%8F%BE%E6%B8%9B%E5%83%B9

(2019/1/9) I don't know if anybody can get a mortgage with such affordability, banks simply don't approve any lending. totally out of imagination

700 20180620

potential positive reversal, daily

175 wk 20180323

175 wk 20180305

388 wk 20180110

It was between friends' joke when it was July 2017 with its price around 217, now it is well settle above 270...

but I think it needs some consolidation/correction before testing its historical high in year 2015 (298.65), like the "B" and "F" stage before reaching the record high.

here's the current snapshot:

175 wk 20180110

watch out for a head and shoulder top pattern undergoing, volume-wise has confirmed, now just waiting for a break under neck-line.

In addition, RSI is showing its weakness with bearish divergence (red line)

Targets could settle around with RSI 55 level, but I think RSI 32 would be the final ground for a better shopping time...

700 wk 20170918 - follow up

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2017/09/700-wk-20170918.html

(repost graph from previous post below)

hsi mth 20171012

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2017/08/hsi-mth-20170814.html

a follow-up, simple is best

700 wk 20171012

sp500 vs hsi 20170929

seems one is leading the other...

hsi td 20170927

2nd time, same pattern formed near the moving average in this year.

388 TD 20170927

a position with very low risk

700 wk 20170918

hsi mth 20170814

hsi mth 20170810

388 td 20170720

強勢股向上突破常有的成交配合

hsi td 20170619

use of RSI

gold wk 20170607

rise like bitcoin?

From Fibonacci grid to paper size system

It's all about math...

0001hk mth 20170510

touched bottom of the channel at climax situation, lower volume at the 2nd higher bottom

hsi gaps 20170510

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2017/05/hsi-gaps.html

事後孔明? keep the trend line extrapolated, sometimes it works as support/resistance

Gold & silver, intermediate & short term, double signals

an important support level (white circle)

premature signal(positive reversal)+a downtrend line

also true in short-term, premature signal (bullish divergence) +a downtrend line

trendline not drawn well ...

hsi - gaps

This is how I find gaps, happen intraday or market open, are interesting.

hsif td 20170426

in future market, a break-out with high volume can be observed.

short-term possibly changes to uptrend

for short-term, positive reversals in both RSI and MACD.

same here for short-term, positive reversals in both RSI and MACD, volume was shrinking during the consolidating wedge which is normal. We need a break-out to the north with extra high volume to confirm the wedge.

hsi wk 20170322

hsi 20170306 - buying low

Everyone in the markets knows that buying low and selling high are the key to make the most profit from the market. However, where/when is low or high enough? No standard answer. Some says when there is a blood-shed for a low to happen, a change in major trend, historical cycle low/high, etc.

One of my favourites is RSI 14-period that historical movements are ranged within 0 to 100. Certainly, it doesn't mean a high with RSI 100 moving to a low with RSI 0, which all depends the trends.

We can just try to buy at a "relative low" and/or sell at a "relative high" level, which is profitable enough in a trade. This is what we aim for and consider to bear some risk in the market. We are not scientists nor mathematicians who chase for ideal case or perfection.

If we look at RSI on a monthly chart, it reveals a way for most people who are patient enough to wait for a relative low to buy. However, to predict a high to sell, I am not confident to mark a specific range as it really depends whether the market is in a bearish or bullish cycle.

hsi 20170302

http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2017/02/hsi-td-20170221.html
- 3 signals observed
- in addition, a re-test at the white trend line

Furthermore, from its weekly chart:
- a potential double top (two red arrows)
- a potential evening star (white circle)

hsi td 20170221

a few signals to look for a reversal: 1/ breaking of supporting uptrend line on price chart 2/ fall below the bottom line of this bullish trend on RSI chart. 3/ MACD bearish cross?

hsi 20170220

in end December 2016, I expected for a rebound to 22500 level. (http://koei1024.blogspot.hk/2016/12/hsi-hr-20161229.html). But it was far too early for a top to appear, it evolved into a consolidation around that level (mid Jan., 23000-22600).

As a trader, I admit I can make mistake. Never fatal since my entry is relatively small. Most importantly, in order to survive in the market, we need to stay sharp with changes that are against our expectation and shall cut loss fast.

For the moment, there is no obvious signal showing any weakness in market. One should note the decreasing volume since Feb. 15th would indicate a top is forming or not.